Tag Archive: Linux

Oct
09

Individual driving risk assessment and car insurance : what applications ? what business models ?

As many people know now, NEXYAD has been developing the first real time driving risk assessment system called SafetyNex.

SafetyNex is currently available in B2B :
          . as a smartphone App (Android and IOS)
          . as a real time driving risk assessment API that OEMs and Insurers may integrate into their own smartphone App or into their own telematics or ADAS device (Android, iOS, Linux, Windows).

This real time driving risk assessment module has been validated on 50 million km, and applies proven methods for risk assessment, using, for instance, the Frank E. BIRD “safety triangle” concept, and running in real time a knowledge-based system AI that has been built by NEXYAD since 2001. It took 15 years to extract thousands of road safety knowledge atoms from experts of 19 countries. Some of this knowledge is directly operational, some is deep knowledge on detection theory (a mix of Information Theory and Knowledge on Human Brain abilities). And of course, SafetyNex also applies fundamental knowledge on mechanics (braking abilities, …) including complex issues such as grip for example.

A tough work was to be made in order to build such a knowledge-based system that could cope with “gradual truth” and could run a complex knowledge-based model in real time. Implementation uses fuzzy sets both for facts and knowledge representation, and competition between knowledge atoms uses deep Possibility Theory concepts. Of course, SafetyNex deals with dynamic problems (road accident, with distances, speed, …) and had to find a proper representation of TIME. NEXYAD was not very quick to develop all those solutions and to integrate them into a product called SafetyNex : SafetyNex is proposed for sale since Jan 2017 (first R&D on SafetyNex : 2001). But the result is efficient : you can run SafetyNex on your smartphone while driving your car and see how it helps you to drive much safer without alerting for nothing.

This unique technology places now NEXYAD in the center of the worldwide telematics/adas/data collecting race for car insurers.

So let’s see what are the main applications of SafetyNex for car insurers :

          . PREVENTION : SafetyNex alerts (vocal alert) driver BEFORE a dangerous situation, letting time to slow down and avoid accident. It is the best prevention tool ever : studies showed that 20% of accident can be avoided (then also 20% of personal injuries and fatalities !!!). SafetyNex is the ONLY tool that runs in real time inside the smartphone or inside the telematics/adas devices and then is the ONLY module that can alert driver (all the other systems apply scoring methods on the cloud …). This is a major differenciation for SafetyNex : avoid accident ! Observation of drivers using SafetyNex showed that they change their way of driving in order to mimnimize the number of alerts, then they change their driving behaviour in the long term.

          . COMMUNICATION : SafetyNex gives driver a score of Safe Driving after every trip. This is a positive way of presenting risk and driver appreciate being given a gold cup for his/her high safe driving score. You can imagine many ways to communicate for car insurers. Example : every year, sort all drivers (customers) of a country, find the best (highest SafetyNex safe driving score) and give a huge incentive (offer a brand new car, for instance). Such an incentive tranforms the car insurer’s customers set into a community that tries to drive better, and you can build of course a social network for experience share and local challenges … etc. This is a simple and very concrete use of digital technology both for getting better profits and for saving lives. Marketing executives call this ‘the Nudge Theory”. SafetyNex is a natural candidate for applying this Nudge Theory.

          . KNOWLEDGE : car insurers only know about risk by accident observation. Although the theory of Frank E. BIRD (safety triangle) shows that the proper variable to observe would be what is called “near miss” or “quasi accident”. SafetyNex alerts every time that driver’s behaviour leads to a quasi accident situation. Then car insurers can use SafetyNex to build this new knowledge and sort and cross all their variables with this new notion. Actuaries will quickly find clever ways to use those new sets of data and you will be surprised to see how productive data scientists can be when they have a direct access to new qualified huge set of data.

          . USAGE BASED INSURANCE : Of course, SafetyNex is THE perfect tool for UBI. At the end of every trip, SafetyNex sends data (statistics) : usage (urban, road, highway, time, duration, km, postal code, etc …) and risk (risk profiles). Then it is very easy to propose Usage Based princings (‘as you drive” or “how you drive” etc).

SafetyNex Risk and usage crossed

It is important to notice that real time abilities of SafetyNex also simplify business models :

          . Anyway car insurer does effective prevention with SafetyNex : it is only needed to avoid few personal injuries and fatalities to “pay” the deployment of SafetyNex. That’s the key of SafetyNex deployment : SafetyNex alerts driver WHILE DRIVING and BEFORE danger, then many accident are avoided … then many personal injuries are avoided. If you know the price of a personal injury in you car insurance, then you see that SafetyNex price was made in order to let you get a fair ROI on this issue.
          . Communication (incentive) is then already paid by the number of avoided personal injuries !
          . and in addition, car insurer gets qualified data : for knowledge acquisition and UBI opportunities study.

As a conclusion, we can remember main facts :

          . SafetyNex real time abilities make it VERY DIFFERENT from any other risk assessment solutions (using stats and data science in the cloud) because then SafetyNex ACTS on driving behaviour BEFORE accident and then lets avoid many accidents.
          . Prevention effect of SafetyNex finances it deployment cost.
          . Knowledge extraction and UBI opportunities business models can be done without stress as SafetyNex already gives a fair ROI to car indurer.

Some OEMs and insurers already started to integrate SafetyNex API into their smartphone App or into their telematics/adas device.

It is now time to move forward to the 21st century with digital insurance.

May
10

Interpretation of Risk Profiles with SafetyNex
A new paper by Nexyad

ESTIMATION OF DRIVER’S EXPERTISE, OF RISK TAKEN CONSCIOUSLY BY THE DRIVER,
AND OF THE LACK OF ANTICIPATION AND MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE ROAD



By NEXYAD

Lire la version Française


I – INTRODUCTION
NEXYAD has been developing the smartphonte application SafetyNex which estimates the risk of driving in real time [1]. SafetyNex is both a driver assistance system (ADAS), which alerts the driver (vocal alert) before danger (When the risk increases too much), and a telematics system that records risk profiles and usage profiles.
Warning before the danger gives the driver time to slow down and avoid the accident. Road Safety studies show that SafetyNex can reduce the number of accidents by 20% [2]. This simple functionality is of interest of car insurers, fleet managers, and to car manufacturers.
SafetyNex also rewards the driver with cups (gold, silver, bronze) that can be transformed into money incentive (vouchers, etc.) so that the safe drivers stil have a daily interest to go on using SafetyNex. Indeed, tools that are not used over a period of time rarely have a real effect on the accidentology. SafetyNex is therefore distinguished from other products, on the one hand by its real time and driving assistance, but also for its “reward” side. SafetyNex informs the driver In real time when the risk exceeds a threshold of danger, than one can say that SafetyNex gives the risk in the hands of the driver first. The driver is in control of his/her risk.
Then SafetyNex distinguishes from all telematics products that ultimately provide information to the insurer or fleet manager, but not to the driver who feels rightly spied on.
Risk and usage profiles [3] are forwarded to managers who have an interest in minimizing risk and the number of accidents. This paper presents a simple way to interpret the risk profiles constructed by SafetyNex.

II – SafetyNex RISK PROFILES
SafetyNex estimates risk of driving at every instant.
Since SafetyNex also measures usages, it measures among other things the durations and the number of traveled kilometers.
One can then construct the curve Risk (t) which is the risk at each moment, and also the curve Risk (km) which is the risk at each point of the route.

Risk Distance

Risk Distance rated

Let’s consider one or the other of those curves, it is easy then to cut the risk into slots:

Risk 03

It is therefore possible to calculate the total duration spent [resp the total number of km carried out] with a risk
between 10% and 20%, for example (or between 50% and 60%). The graph of these durations [resp number of km] for each range of risk (0% -10%, 10% -20%, etc.), looks like :

Graph 4

It can be seen that this graph can be seperated into three parts:

Graph 05

. A very high bar of near zero risk
. A shape of « bell curve » comparable to a gaussian
. Rising at the very end towards high risks
NEXYAD has run over 3,500 testers since June 2016, and has been able to interpret the shapes of these curves.

III – INTERPRETATION OF SafetyNex RISK PROFILES : CONSENTED RISK, EXPERTISE OF DRIVING, LACK OF ANTICIPATION OF DRIVER
The large quasi-zero risk bar simply expresses the fact that overall the car is a safe mode of transportation.
The part that draws a bell curve has a more or less strong spread : we have noticed that experienced drivers have a narrow curve (repeatability of their driving style is high) while beginners have a huge spread (they can’t drive always the same way).
The centering of the bell curve (maximum likelihood) corresponds to the way in which the driver takes a controlled Risk : cautious beginners have a low maximum likelihood (they try to take as less risk as they can) while experienced drivers have a higher maximum likelihood : they know what risk level thay can cope with.
Finally, the values that go up to the right (tail of distribution of the curve in bell) correspond to the vocal alerts, that is to saycases where the driver has not fully understood that the risk is high. In other words, it is the lack of anticipation and misunderstanding of road.

IV – CONCLUSION
SafetyNex’s risk profiles make it possible to understand the kind of driver you have :
. Cautious / not cautious (maximum likelihood of the bell curve position)
. Experienced / beginner (spreading of the bell curve)
. Lack of anticipation / very good anticipation (queues of distribution of the curve in bell)
Fleet insurers and managers therefore have all the information that they need to help the driver.
For example, within the framework of prevention plans, offering training adapted to each type of risky driving.
We validated this information by driving 3,500 testers, including beginners, experienced drivers, and also pilots (who in take risks appearance, but in reality have a very safe driving). This allowed us to give these interpretations of SafetyNex’s risk profiles.
With the deployment of SafetyNex to reduce the number of accidents, professionals structurally gain margin, and can use this margin to analyze profiles, segment them, and find the segments where it may be interesting to develop UBI (Usage Based Insurance) and real time pricing fleet.
This multi-functionality of SafetyNex makes it a unique and effective tool for managing driving risks.

V – REFERENCES
[1] : THE ULTIMATE SOLUTION FOR INSURANCE COMPANIES THAT NEED ONBOARD RISK ASSESSMENT : SafetyNex

[2] : SMARTPHONE APP SafetyNex COULD REDUCE ACCIDENT RATE BY 20%

[3] : EXAMPLE OF SafetyNex RISK PROFILES

Feb
23

SafetyNex Video Demo Onboard

Voir la version française de la démo

SafetyNex is a Smartphone APP that measures Risk taken by the Driver in Real Time and warns him before dangerous areas.

SafetyNex is available throuth an API (Android, iOS, Windows, Linux)