Cluster « Groupement ADAS » Launched the october 18th first ADAS Morning co-organized with MOVEO in Paris.
Thema was ADAS and Road Safety : to discuss challenges, solutions and opportunities with many specialists personalities in the field in front of a large audiance.
New Release of SafetyNex : Real Time Driving Risk Assessment for Car Industry and Insurance Companies
Reminder :
. SafetyNex App gives risk of accident
. No Big Data on Cloud, but risk is fully calculated inside driver’s smartphone
. The App warns the driver in case of high risk able to generate dangerous situation
. With 4 secondes anticipation that let time to reduce speed or to brake
. Risk construction implements concept of near accident invented by searchers in accidentology
. Near accident is explainable by cause/effect relations
. Regularity of this concept ensures the perfect correlation of calculated risk by SafetyNex with accidentology
. Nexyad work since 2001 and work basis used came from scientific publications
General ergonomics of SafetyNex has changed and after each run you have immediate results of your driving score with Gold Cup if you are safe.
Update of RoadNex & ObstaNex : Road Detection and Obstacles Detection for ADAS and Driverless
Nexyad realised a major update of RoadNex v3.0 & ObstaNex v3.1
Obstacle Detection with ObstaNex by Nexyad: this run was made with a single camera
Obstacle Detection with ObstaNex by Nexyad : city traffic
* * * * *
CESA Automotive 2016 : Symposium on Automotive Innovation
Nexyad on the booth Groupement ADAS at CESA Automotive 2016
RENAULT ZOE of Adaccess on Groupement ADAS booth at CESA Automotive 2016.
Gérard Yahiaoui CEO of Nexyad and Jochen Langheim Vice President of ST microelectronics and Chairman of CESA Automotive 2016 on Groupement ADAS booth at CESA in Versailles.
Nexyad Presented SafetyNex at CESA 4.0 2016
Gérard Yahiaoui CEO of Nexyad presented SafetyNex Real Time Onboard Driving Risk Assessment for Car Telematics at the Conference « Highly Automated Driving New Sensors » of CESA 2016 in Versailles.
Groupement ADAS booth shows top technologies and competences of 9 companies dedicated to ADAS and sponsored by MOVEO.
. ADACCESSis a French engineering company specialized in embedded measurement and vehicle prototyping.
. CAR&D : Creative Automotive Research and Development (Car Dynamics)
First issue of ADAS Morning on ADAS for Road Safety
Cluster « Groupement ADAS » Launched the october 18th first ADAS Morning co-organized with MOVEO in Paris. Thema was ADAS and Road Safety : to discuss challenges, solutions and opportunities with many specialists personalities in the field in front of a large audience.
Les enjeux
Les enjeux humains
ADAS et véhicules autonomes quels enjeux pour les personnes ayant des besoins spécifiques – Claude Dumas – CEREMH
Les chiffres de l’insécurité routière : Christophe Ramond – Prévention Routière
ADAS et facteurs humains : Apports des sciences cognitives- Franck Techer – IFFSTAR
Les enjeux économiques
Risque routier lié au travail: quel coût pour les entreprises ? Patrick Oberto – Promotion et Suivi de la Sécurité Routière en Entreprise
ADAS et TIC, outils de disruption de la chaîne assurancielle : Philippe Caton – COVEA
Diminution de la sinistralité responsable : Jean Zermati – ORANGE
Les solutions actuelles
Les systèmes de sécurité active et les ADAS
Evolution technique de l’accidentologie et de la problématique d’estimation du gain des ADAS : Philippe Chrétien – CEESAR
Nouvelles mobilités et sécurité routière : quelles évolutions pour l’infrastructure ? : Eric Violette – CEREMA
Assistant nomade à la conduite sûre et responsable : Gérard Yahiaoui – NEXYAD
Les Perspectives
Le défi de la sécurité routière : l’intégration des facteurs humains dans les cas d’usages d’expérimentation des ADAS : Stéphane Barbier – TRANSPOLIS
Véhicule autonome, une révolution de la mobilité – Rémi BASTIEN–RENAULT
New white paper : ROI Evaluation for Insurance Companies with SafetyNex
New Nexyad paper :
Real time App for onboard driving risk assessment SafetyNex used by Insurance Companies
(onboard telematics with smartphone for car insurance)
Evaluation of return on investment (ROI)
INTRODUCTION
European and American car Insurance Companies are all currently testing onboard telematics systems (on professional electronics devices or on Smartphones), in order to study new opportunities provided by digital technologies in the evolution of their business and business models [1].
We also can see now some experiments in Asia. Indeed, digitization of the economy has an impact on insurance industry too, as new competitors such as GAFAMs (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft) come to their car insurance market with new approaches, always ready to capture value.
The main idea behind testing telematics is that it would be nice to adjust at best pricing of insurance depending on the driver. Onboard telematics is expected to « measure » usage (kind of road, day/night, number of km, et …) and to estimate risk taken by the driver. Read the entire paper
* * * * *
Vision Systems presenting Smart-Vision
at Automotive Techdays 2016
Friday, november 4th, at Automotive Techdays in Lyon (Rhône-Alpes), Vision System announced its new technology Smart-Vision. This ADAS innovation is fully developed by the firm from Brignais in partnership with Nexyad. Smart-Vision is a unique and complete rearview and surround view system replacing traditional mirrors with HD digital cameras and interior screens.This system informs the driver :
. When a vehicle is coming from the back 80 meters away
. When a vehicle, bicycle or pedestrian enters the blind spot area, each with a specific signal, regardless of the speed of the vehicle or the external environment.
. When they can safely change lane (for example, after overtaking).
Smart-Vision reduces power/fuel consumption significantly, enhances ergonomics and improves safety.
Both hardware and software are tailor-made by Vision Systems.
* * * * *
Nexyad in Media
Article de la PFA (Filières Automobile et Mobilités) citant Nexyad :
Retour sur le congrès du CESA 4.0 – « Automotive Electronic Systems »
NEXYAD Automotive & Transportation Newsletter #12, October 6th, 2016
SafetyNex the Revolutionary App of Road Safety
Headlines :
– Nexyad on BMW booth at the Mondial de L’Automobile
– The SafetyNex Revolution for everyone
– Papers about SafetyNex
– Visit of BMW Startup Garage
– Important Release of ObstaNex : our Obstacles Detector for ADAS
– French Minister Ségolène Royal congrats SME’s
– Nexyad researcher speaker at Brussels
– Nexyad in Media
Dans le cadre du Mondial de l’Automobile à Paris 2016, Gérard Yahiaoui était interviewé le 3 octobre sur le plateau de la chaîne TV du Mondial. (English translation coming soon)
Interview of Nexyad CEO, Gérard Yahiaoui, by Laurent Meillaud at Mondial de l’Auto TV
Nexyad on BMW booth at the Mondial de L’Automobile
NEXYAD was invited by BMW on BMW booth at Mondial de l’Automobile Paris 2016, october 5th, .
After have been choosen as one of the three winners of BMW Techdate Challenge 2016. Up left: presentation of SafetyNex by Nexyad; up right: Serge Naudin, CEO BMW Group France, Gérard Yahiaoui, CEO Nexyad. Down left: the fabulous BMW i8
Thanks to BMW for this amazing event
BMW gave the opportunity for three innovative french startups to present their technologies on the business lounge on BMW booth. Serge Naudin, CEO of BMW Group France made a speech that remains the goal of the challenge BMW techdate that bring the winners to BMW Startup Garage in Munich (two weeks ago). He congratulated Nexyad, Oridao and Sentryo and introduced each of them to a bench of selected journalists.
Gérard Yahiaoui presented SafetyNex (that reduces accident rate by 20%) Nexyad onboard App of Risk assessment for driver, then he answered the questions and received several invited customers and partners.
Reminder : BMW Techdate wished to push ahead the french innovative high tech and identify new partners for technology matters. After a picky skimming, 20 startups were selected to present their project in front of a professional panel of Automotive, mobility, and connected car experts.
The quality of SafetyNex impressed the jury and the 9th june, BMW France announced Nexyad as part of the 3 winners of the first Techdate Challenge with Oridao and Sentryo.
Interview of Nexyad CEO, Gérard Yahiaoui, by Laurent Meillaud at Mondial de l’Auto TV
The SafetyNex Revolution for everyone
SafetyNex, une App SmartPhone qui révolutionne le monde de l’automobile : véhicules intelligents, assurance auto, gestion de flottes, utilisation du digital pour le retail
SafetyNex is a Samartphone App developed and sold by NEXYAD, it’s allows to reduce Accident Rate by 20% [1]. This App has a straight applied interest for several users.
– Driver
– Insurance Company
– Car Manufacturer
– Fleet Manager
– Big Retailer
SafetyNex is the ultimate SmartPhone App for real time onboard driving risk assessment.
See how it works and how SafetyNex can reduce accident rate by 20% with respect for driver’s privacy.
Just read all the papers (available both in English and En Français) and feel free to contact NEXYAD for any question : sales@nexyad.net
Note : NEXYAD will present SafetyNex on the BMW booth at MONDIAL de L’AUTO, in Paris, the 5th of October (*)
(*) SafetyNex was selected by BMW during the BMW Tech Date Challenge in Paris in June 2016.
NEXYAD was received by BMW in Munich last week.
From an initiative of BMW France, we were invited in the heart of BMW with two other Laureats of BMW Tech_date : ORIDAO and SENTRYO.
The BMW Startup Garage is a special department of BMW that seek for innovative SME’s to work with.
The program was pretty complete with presentation of SME’s and their products to an audience of chosen BMW teams, visits of BMW Welt (show room), BMW Museum, and BMW plant.
We were very impressed by the welcome of everybody, specialy from Startup Garage !
We want to thank again Carolina, Gregor and Matthias.
Next meeting october 5th on BMW Booth at Mondial de l’Automobile Paris 2016.
BMW Techdate Winner Teams, Nexyad, Oridao and Sentryo
Important Release of ObstaNex : our Obstacles Detector for ADAS
New Release of Nexyad ObstaNex v3.0
This new version included pattern recognition and tracking, and new management of camera model of with a special component that allows multiple camera models on a same RT-Maps diagram.
Applications are ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and Driverless Car, but also Road Safety.
ObstaNex v3.0 : Obstacles Detection for ADAS (here filter on vehicles detection)
French Minister Ségolène Royal congrats SME’s
September 28th, in Paris, Madame Ségolène Royal, french Minister for Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy gave « Initiative SME’s » Prices from ADEME (French Environment & Energy Management Agency).
Nexyad concourrait dans le cadre du projet SEMACOR (portage de SafetyNex sur les smartphones).
Merci à l’ADEME. the laureates of « Innovative SME’s »
French Minister Ségolène Royal, Gérard Yahiaoui, Nexyad CEO
Nexyad researcher speaker in Brussels
Smart Systems for the Automobile of the Future Brussels, 22-23 September 2016
Nexyad researcher Grégoire Julien, Dr Physics at Ecole Normale, presented a scientific publication at 20th International Forum on Advanced Microsystems for Automotive Applications (AMAA 2016).
« FUNCTIONAL SAFETY: ON-BOARD COMPUTING OF RISK OF ACCIDENT »
Grégoire Julien, Pierre Da Silva Dias, Gérard Yahiaoui
One can also find the paper in « Advanced Microsystems for Automotive Applications 2016 » published by Springer 2016
Nexyad in Media
Ces trois start-up françaises qui ont séduit le groupe BMW
Trois start-up françaises, sélectionnées parmi 80 dossiers de candidatures, se sont vu ouvrir les portes du groupe BMW à Munich.
October 5th, on the BMW stand at Mondial de l’Automobile Paris 2016.
BMW gave the opportunity for three innovative french startups to present their technologies on the business lounge on BMW booth. Serge Naudin, CEO of BMW Group France made a speech that remains the goal of the challenge BMW techdate that bring the winners to BMW Startup Garage in Munich (two weeks ago). He congratulated Nexyad, Oridao and Sentryo and introduced each of them to a bench of selected journalists.
Gérard Yahiaoui presented SafetyNex (that reduces accident rate by 20%) Nexyad onboard App of Risk assessment for driver, then he answered the questions and received several invited customers and partners.
Serge Naudin, CEO of BMW Group France & Gérard Yahiaoui, CEO of Nexyad
BMW Tech_Date : les 3 startups gagnantes présentent leurs technologies innovantes au Mondial de l’Automobile à Paris.
Les gagnants du concours sont accueillis dans l’espace BMW sur le Mondial à Paris et bénéficient ainsi d’une forte visibilité.
Les startups lauréates ont aussi été reçues à Munich par les équipes de BMW Group du 19 au 23 septembre autour d’un programme personnalisé.
BMW met le projecteur sur l’excellence des startups françaises et leur rôle dans la mobilité de demain.
Paris, 5 octobre. Les trois startups gagnantes de la première édition du BMW Tech_Date ont été accueillies ce jour par BMW Group au Mondial de l’automobile pour présenter leurs technologies innovantes primées lors du concours le 9 juin dernier:
Nexyad pourSafetyNex, un logiciel d’estimation embarquée du risque de conduite ; Oridao pour Radiobus, une technologie de mise en réseau instantanée des véhicules avec des objets connectés ; Sentryo pour ICS CyberVision, une solution de cybersécurité pour l’internet industriel.
SafetyNex is a smartphone application developed and marketed by NEXYAD and which reduces by 20% the number of road accidents [1]. This application is of direct interest to many application targets.
– Driver
– Insurance Companies
– Car Manufacturers
– Fleet Managers
– Mass Marketers
Le 28 septembre 2016 à la Maison de la Chimie, Ségolène Royal, Madame la Ministre de l’Écologie, du Développement durable et de l’Énergie a remis les prix aux lauréats « Initiative PME » de l’ADEME.
SafetyNex, une App SmartPhone qui révolutionne le monde de l’automobile : véhicules intelligents, assurance auto, gestion de flottes, utilisation du digital pour le retail
SafetyNex est une application Smartphone développée et commercialisée par NEXYAD, et qui permet de réduire de 20% le nombre d’accidents de la route [1]. Cette application présente un intérêt applicatif direct pour de nombreuses cibles.
– Le conducteur
– L’assureur automobile
– Le constructeur automobile
– Le gestionnaire de flotte auto
– Le grand distributeur
SafetyNex is the ultimate SmartPhone App for real time onboard driving risk assessment.
See how it works and how SafetyNex can reduce accident rate by 20% with respect for driver’s privacy.
Just read all the papers (available both in English and En Français) and feel free to contact NEXYAD for any question : sales@nexyad.net
Note : NEXYAD will present SafetyNex on the BMW booth at MONDIAL de L’AUTO, in Paris, the 5th of October (*)
(*) SafetyNex was selected by BMW during the BMW Tech Date Challenge in Paris in June 2016.
Back from Munich…
NEXYAD was received by BMW in Munich this week.
From an initiative of BMW France, we were invited in the heart of BMW with two other Laureats of BMW Tech_date : ORIDAO and SENTRYO.
The BMW Startup Garage is a special department of BMW that seek for innovative SME’s to work with.
The program was pretty complete with presentation of SME’s and their products to an audience of chosen BMW teams, visits of BMW Welt (show room), BMW Museum, and BMW plant.
We were very impressed by the welcome of everybody, specialy from Startup Garage !
We want to thank again Carolina, Gregor and Matthias.
Next meeting october 5th on BMW Booth at Mondial de l’Automobile Paris 2016.
I – ONBOARD TELEMATICS AND AUTO INSURANCE : REMINDER
Onboard telematics now can measure behavior of a driver, and therefore, car insurers have early started this adventure of connected car, more or less successfully.
The simplest applications that have been deployed are:
. locate stolen vehicles
. measure the usage of the driver, and in particular the number of kilometers traveled in order to propose adaptive pricing (vehicle that always stays in a garage will never have an accident!)
But the main business of the insurer deals with the concept of risk, and then, we have seen a lot of telematics firms proposing automatic detection of risky behaviors. The most common is the so-called detection of « severe braking », which is based on the assumption that severe braking reveals a lack of anticipation, and thereby a dangerous driving. We now know that this assumption is totally false [1], but it is still in the mind of some insurers that « want to believe » there is a simple way to classify human beings behaviours. However, the lack of results of these deployments has led some German and US insurers to abandon Telematics [2].
As part of the challenge BMW Techdate, last june, Nexyad is invited to visit BMW facilities and to share with their researchers in Munich.
BMW Headquarters
Indeed, as a reminder, Nexyad is one of the three winners of this challenge organized by BMW France to honor the French technology innovations : we had been presented our Onboard Risk Assessment App on smartphone : SafetyNex that measures risk taken by the driver. Gérard Yahiaoui our CEO participated at this time with Serge Naudin President of BMW France to a TV Show on BMF Business.
Then Nexyad team will fly monday to the capital of Bavaria for a stay of four days.
We already want to thank BMW for this opportunity.
I – TELEMATIQUE EMBARQUEE ET ASSURANCE AUTOMOBILE : RAPPELS
La télématique embarquée permet de mesurer en situation le comportement d’un conducteur, et de ce fait, les assureurs auto se sont assez tôt lancés dans l’aventure, avec, il faut le dire, plus ou moins de succès.
Les applications les plus simples qui ont été déployées sont :
. localiser les véhicules volés
. mesurer les usages du conducteur, et en particulier le nombre de km parcourus pour proposer des tarifs au km (un véhicule qui ne roule jamais n’aura jamais d’accident !)
Mais le métier principal de l’assureur tourne autour de la notion de risque, et assez vite, on a vu des tentatives de détection automatique des comportements à risque. Le plus répandu est la détection des « freinages sévères », qui s’appuie sur l’hypothèse selon laquelle un freinage sévère révèle un manque d’anticipation, et par là-même une conduite dangereuse. Nous savons maintenant que cette hypothèse est totalement fausse [1], mais elle est encore présente à l’esprit de pas mal d’assureurs.
Le manque de résultats de ces déploiements a d’ailleurs conduit des assureurs allemands et américains à abandonner la télématique [2].
. SafetyNex est une App Smartphone qui se vit par les conducteurs comme étant un véritable copilote digital : alerte en amont d’une difficulté dès lors que la vitesse excessive du véhicule montre clairement que le conducteur n’a pas identifié le danger. SafetyNex remonte périodiquement aux assureurs des profils d’usages et de risque.
. Les utilisations prévues de SafetyNex par les compagnies d’assurance sont :
– Augmentation de la marge opérationnelle de l’assureur : SafetyNex peut permettre d’éviter 20% des accidents de la route d’après les études publiées en Grande Bretagne et aux USA. Si la compagnie d’assurance déploie SafetyNex à primes constantes : elle offre à ses assurés, un outil perçu comme utile, et elle baisse l’accidentologie de 20%. Par ailleurs, les accidents non évités arrivant statistiquement moins vite (puisque le conducteur est prévenu en amont, il a le temps de ralentir), la sinistralité est plus faible. Cela s’applique à l’ensemble des conducteurs, y compris les jeunes conducteurs qui coûtent cher aux assureurs. Cet effet sur la marge ne demande aucun travail particulier à l’assureur.
– Pay as you drive : les usages sont tracés (km parcourus, tranches horaires, type d’infra Ville/Route/Autoroute, etc…) ce qui permet de proposer des tarifs à l’utilisation.
– Pay how you drive : le risque pris par le conducteur est mesuré, et permet à l’assureur d’ajuster ses segmentations de clientèles et ses tarifs s’il veut proposer des tarifs modulés par le risque.
– Prime écologique : SafetyNex intègre en option un système de calcul de l’éco-conduite qui est inversement proportionnel à la brutalité de la conduite.
– Prévention : les profils de risque peuvent être croisés avec des causes de risque (vitesse inadaptée en virage, sur croisement, sur zones piétonnes, etc…) si bien qu’il est possible de proposer des sensibilisations, stages, et formations ciblés sur une population.
– Silver coaching : le suivi des risques dans le temps peut permettre de déceler une baisse d’aptitude à la conduite chez les séniors. Dans ce cas, l’assureur peut intervenir pour aider son client à baisser son risque tout en restant conducteur le plus longtemps possible.
– Assistance : en cas de choc sévère, le smartphone propose un « gros bouton » OK permettant d’appeler en un clic un numéro de téléphone préenregistré par l’App.
NB : SafetyNex s’inscrit parfaitement dans les évolutions du métier de l’assureur, telles que présentées dans les publications de synthèse des cabinets de Consulting de renommée mondiale (Accenture, BCG, Deloitte, KPMG, McKinsey, etc …)
SafetyNex ne remonte AUCUNE donnée brute et/ou indiscrète (compatibilité CNIL à 100%). Toutes les données brutes, nécessaires aux calculs, sont utilisées DANS le smartphone (calculs sur le microprocesseur du smartphone) et non stockées.
SafetyNex a été validé sur 50 millions de km.
Les données remontées dans le cloud sont des histogrammes (profils) et tous les croisements des variables :
. usages : km parcourus, ville/route/autoroute, tranches horaires, zone géographique (département)
. risque (histogrammes et grandes catégories de risques)
. note éco (en option)
. SafetyNex is a Smartphone road safety App that works like a true digital co-pilot : warning the driver when approaching a dangerous area, once the excessive speed of the vehicle clearly shows that the driver did not notice the danger. SafetyNex records for insurers profiles of risk and usage.
. Insurance Companies can use SafetyNex for several purposes :
– Increase operating margin of the insurer
SafetyNex can prevent 20% of road accidents according studies published in Great Britain and the USA. If the insurance company deploys SafetyNex with no premiums change : it offers a tool to its policyholders perceived as useful, and it decreases the accident of 20%. Moreover, accidents that may not be avoided come statistically slower (because the driver is warned and has time to slow down), the loss ratio is lower. This applies to all drivers, including young drivers that are costly to insurers.
– Pay as you drive: usages are plotted (km traveled, type of infra City / Highway / Highway, time slots, etc …) allowing to offer per-use rates.
– Pay how you drive: the risk taken by the driver is measured, and allows the insurer to adjust its client segmentation and its prices if it wants to offer rates modulated by the risk.
– Ecological bonus: SafetyNex incorporates an optional eco-driving scoring system that is inversely proportional to the brutality of driving.
– Prevention: the risk profiles can be crossed with class of risk (inappropriate speed cornering, on crossing over pedestrian zones, etc …) so it is possible to provide sensitization, courses, and targeted training on a population.
– Silver coaching: risk monitoring among time may help to detect a decline in driving ability for seniors. In such a case, the insurer may act to help its customers to lower their risk while staying as long as possible a driver.
– Support: in severe crash, the smartphone pops up a « big OK button » for calling in one click a phone number prerecorded by the App.
NB: SafetyNex fits perfectly with deep changes in the car insurance business, as presented in publications of Major Consulting Groups (Accenture, BCG, Deloitte, KPMG, McKinsey, etc …)
SafetyNex doesn’ record any raw data and / or intrusive data (100% CNIL and privacy protection compatibility). All raw data required for risk assessment are used INSIDE the smartphone (computing on the microprocessor of the smartphone) and those raw data are not recorded.
SafetyNex was validated on 50 million km.
Data recorded in the cloud are histograms (profiles) and all crossings of variables:
. usage : kilometers traveled, city / highway / motorway, time slots, geographical area (department)
. risk (histograms and broad risk categories)
. Eco rating (optional)
1 – Role of the insurer
The insurance idea would have appeared on the occasion of the first great journey by boat, and the appearance of « modern » insurance is generally dated from the 19th century.
The principle of insurance is easy to understand : if accidents are rare (compared to the number of occurrences – travel, car trips, etc.), a simple and prudent idea then is to « put aside » a certain amount of money for each occurrence (which on average does not lead to an accident) and to use the money to repay the cost of the claim in case (rare) of accident.
One could imagine that individuals manage themselves each a « pot » of this type. Of course, even if an accident is rare, you never know when it happens and it may happen at any beginning of the process so that the pot is almost empty.
We could then easily make a common pot between several people, to smooth it : if three people make a common pot, it is unlikely that the three have an accident while starting hoarding. But… it is anyway possible. Although if the pot is conceived with hundreds of thousands of people there, you secure the problem of « instant » of the accident. This is the « law of large numbers », which allows a deterministic modeling of chance : the odds. It remains to define the amount of money to set aside each month for example (or each travel).
To handle this (a pot shared by hundreds of thousands of contributors, the estimated sum to put aside, etc…), it is obvious that it is necessary to have qualified personnel, sufficient… and finally, it happens naturally to the idea of the Insurance Company.
L’idée d’assurance serait apparue à l’occasion des premiers grands voyages maritimes, et l’apparition
« moderne » de l’assurance est généralement datée du 19ème siècle.
Le principe de l’assurance est le suivant : si les accidents sont rares (comparativement au nombre
d’occurrences : de voyages, de trajets automobile, etc.), une idée simple et prudente consiste alors à « mettre de côté » une certaine somme pour chaque occurrence (qui en moyenne ne conduit pas à un accident) de manière à utiliser cette somme pour rembourser le coût du sinistre en cas (rare) d’accident.
On pourrait imaginer que les particuliers gèrent eux-mêmes chacun une « cagnotte » de ce type. Bien sûr, même si un accident est rare, on ne sait jamais quand il arrive et il se peut qu’il arrive au tout début du processus si bien que la cagnotte est presque vide.
On peut alors facilement faire une cagnotte commune entre plusieurs personnes, pour lisser ce problème : si trois personnes font une cagnotte commune, il est peu probable que les trois
aient un accident au tout départ de la thésaurisation. Mais … c’est quand-même possible. On conçoit bien que si l’on construit la cagnotte avec plusieurs centaines de milliers de personnes, là
on a sécurisé le problème du « moment » de l’accident. C’est la loi des grands nombres qui permet d’utiliser une modélisation déterministe du hasard : les probabilités. Reste à définir le montant de la somme à mettre de côté, chaque mois par exemple (ou à chaque trajet).
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